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Author: Subject: NHL 16-17
OOMike
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posted on 10-12-2016 at 06:23 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
NHL 16-17

With opening night here for the league, and my tickets for tomorrow's opening night with the Jackets bought, lets get this thread started for me and the other three hockey fans.

Atlantic:
Tampa Bay
Metro:
Washington (Jackets come close but finish just outside the wild card)
Pacific:
San Jose (Edmonton actually contends)
Central:
Colorado (a final fuck you to Roy)

East:
Montreal over Islanders
West:
Los Angeles over Colorado

Finals
Montreal over Los Angeles in six and Canada closes for a week long bender.





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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 10-13-2016 at 03:06 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Atlantic = Tampa
Metro = Pittsburgh

Pacific = LA
Central = Chicago

Playoffs

Pens over Tampa
Nashville over Calgary

Pens over Nashville

Hart = Crosby
Art Ross McDavid
Norris = Suban
Calder = AUSTON MATTHEWS

Extra Prediction = Wings miss playoffs, Habs trade their captain, Columbus fires Trots in November and instantly goes on a winning streak.

ETA ...

Fuck anybody who thinks Canadians have to get behind the last team from Canada in the playoffs. It's beyond stupid.

[Edited on 10-13-2016 by bigfatgoalie]

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OOMike
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posted on 10-13-2016 at 02:16 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
So how long is Matthews contract before he bolts to a team with other talent?





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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 10-16-2016 at 04:21 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by OOMike
So how long is Matthews contract before he bolts to a team with other talent?


Considering the Leafs prospect pool is the consensu best in the NHL...I'm not sure Matthews will want to go anyplace after year 7.

Hell Nylander would be most team's top prospect, and nobody is talking about him because of Auston and Marner.

Oh and Morgan Riley is damn good.

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Flash
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posted on 10-16-2016 at 10:10 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by OOMike
So how long is Matthews contract before he bolts to a team with other talent?


His entry level deal is 3 years, like all max rookie deals... since he's coming in right away he's got the potential to be an unrestricted free agent at 26 I do believe... he's 19 now (just missed last years draft class), so not too sure how that will work. He won't have arbitration/RFA rights until I think 23 or 24, which means he'll have a contract between getting the right to sign as a restricted free agent with another club, and unrestricted free agency... Those tend to be the years when players have the most leverage.... Yeah, a player (see Jacob Truba in Winnipeg) can try and sit their way out of town, but those tend to be the exceptions as opposed to the rule... If Matthews is anywhere near as good as expected (and a 4 goal start to his career would suggest that he's very good) the list would be short on teams that could afford to part with what would be needed to land a young first line centre... Those are the problems with a young guy wanting to bail.

In drafting a first line player first overall the Leafs likely have an expectation as to what kind of dough they'll be paying a player like that... they also know these are usually your long term deals right off their rookie contracts... Toronto has, or will have that kind of cap room shortly... again, not every team out there is going to have the assets and the cap room while still being able to be a winner... so the list of reasons why Matthews would want to leave would be short.

On top of this, in Toronto and with the exposure it brings Matthews will likely command a couple seven figure endorsement deals that he might not necessarily get in other markets... or at least to the same extent.

As BFG pointed out the Leafs have a pretty deep level of organizational talent... they will also likely add to that in the next year or two as well, as I don't see them being immediate winners for a while... Throw in one of the NHL's better coaches, and a pretty sound head office that's willing to spend to the cap and is committed to winning and barring Matthews hating the Toronto limelight/media more than any player in the history of the NHL (I mean Kessel seemed to not mind it here, so it can't be that bad) and there are far more reasons for him to stay than go in about 7 years.

Lol, this was probably a far longer winded rambling explanation than what was probably a joking troll effort against insane Leafs fans.

Still, despite not having accomplished anything, it does seem like it's a good time to be a Leafs fan.

Some predictions...

*Kind of want to go with Washington for the cup favourite, but they kind of always seem to not get the job done year after year despite being the favourites... Anaheim maybe? Hard to discount Chicago and LA given their track records... St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville aren't exactly dark horse picks... tough one this year, feel like you could even see someone come out of left field like a Calgary... screw it, let's go with Anaheim.

*Leafs will not make the playoffs... neither will Edmonton. We'll see what the Jets get for Truba, but I think they are on the outside looking in. I think the Sedins will be motivated to push the Canuck's into the post-season, but this is a team in transition... stuck between needing to replace old expensive bodies and give young guys a chance... some of their trades are attractive, but kind of curious (Horvat getting pushed down the depth chart for Sutter was questionable, but if the Sedins are gone soon then it's not that bad).

*Speaking of Edmonton I still hate that Taylor Hall deal... You already had Hall under contract long term, and he was cheaper and had far more upside than Lucic. Larsson is good, but not great defenseman... I dunno, I think you could have gotten a good d-man for Nugent-Hopkins and some combination of players/picks if that's what it took.

*I like some of what Montr�al did... definitely got tougher, but it was a bit heartbreaking to see Subban traded... still, they did what they needed to do to get tougher in the East, but their fortunes will be as ever tied to Price.

*Ottawa could sneak in and make some noise.

*Canada's cup dryspell continues... Montr�al is probably our best hope, but too many more attractive options out there.

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Paddlefoot
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posted on 10-16-2016 at 10:29 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by OOMike
So how long is Matthews contract before he bolts to a team with other talent?


He's obligated to go through at least four years of unrelenting loathing and ridicule from the mentally ill TO sports media and fans for not single-handedly winning a Cup all by himself before he's allowed to ask for a trade. See 2016 STANLEY CUP WINNER! Phil Kessel, who they rode out of town on a rail, as the most recent example of how spectacularly stupid Toronto can be thanks to their insane impatience/delusions of grandeur.

[Edited on 10/16/2016 by Paddlefoot]





You know, everyone says it's not supposed to make sense, like that's the whole point, dude. And I'm just saying, you know, that's like an excuse for lazy storytelling. Just don't sell me shite and tell me it's gold, all right? I might be stoned, but I'm not high. You know what I mean?
- Cassidy from Preacher, commenting on The Big Lebowski and/or professional wrestling

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OOMike
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posted on 12-23-2016 at 04:47 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Just wanted to share this little bit of information,

Columbus Blue Jackets #1 in NHL.





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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 12-24-2016 at 05:40 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by OOMike
Just wanted to share this little bit of information,

Columbus Blue Jackets #1 in NHL.


That is absurd as the Leafs having the best prospects in the NHL.

Also...Leo Komarov (nicknamed Uncle Leo after the Seinfeld character) has 2 goals on Festivus. Not sure if this is his feats of strength, or more airing of grievances over Leafs giving up 3rd period leads.

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OOMike
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posted on 12-28-2016 at 02:19 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
13 in a row, 12-0 in December, 52 points in 33 games.

This is truly the end of the world...

ETA: Most points in the NHL, played the fewest games in the NHL.

[Edited on 12-28-2016 by OOMike]





2017 where Nazis are defended and being against Fascism is a bad thing.

Prejudices are rarely overcome by argument; not being founded in reason they cannot be destroyed by logic � Tryon Edwards

Never let the facts interfere with a good rant.

The only OO columnist that has never written a column.

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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 12-28-2016 at 04:23 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
The Jackets seem to be having success based on a few things. Fancy stat folks will point out that their save % differential is amazingly high. Sure Bob is good...but he's not that much better than the rest of the league. That number is inflated by a couple of blow outs, but the overall PDOs suggest Columbus will regress.

They also have had an easy schedule. They are in the bottom 4 for travel miles, have a -3 in rested vs tired (rested = other team coming off a back to back, tired meaning they are playing the 2nd game in 2 nights), and their strength of schedule gets much tougher in the coming months.

But good on them for racking up wins they in gettable games. It's something the Leafs need to learn how to do.

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OOMike
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posted on 12-28-2016 at 08:07 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Not to argue with the stat heads, but yes points in 85% of games is not sustainable, nor do I think they will never lose again, however for the past month those writers have been saying over and over that they are outperforming their abilities, and yet all they do is play good hockey.

Seven players with 20 or more points, their worst loss was 3 goals, they have only been shut out once, they beat Montreal and Pitt on back to back nights, they are 5-0 vs the Metro, 6-2-1 vs Atlantic, 8-3-1 vs Pacific, 5-0-2 vs Central. That tells me that they are in all their games, they have a deep lineup with multiple weapons, have played some strong competition, and have completed most of their road games against the west, so they will be staying in the East and Central time zone for the rest of the season. They already have completed both their California trip (1-1-1) and Western Canada trip (3-0), and I think the furthest west they will go is Winnipeg tomorrow. Plus they already have done their 5 games in 7 days stretch (2-1-2), and besides the Florida swing their longest road trip is 5 games, but that is broken up by All-Star Weekend.





2017 where Nazis are defended and being against Fascism is a bad thing.

Prejudices are rarely overcome by argument; not being founded in reason they cannot be destroyed by logic � Tryon Edwards

Never let the facts interfere with a good rant.

The only OO columnist that has never written a column.

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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 12-28-2016 at 10:12 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by OOMike
Not to argue with the stat heads, but yes points in 85% of games is not sustainable, nor do I think they will never lose again, however for the past month those writers have been saying over and over that they are outperforming their abilities, and yet all they do is play good hockey.

Seven players with 20 or more points, their worst loss was 3 goals, they have only been shut out once, they beat Montreal and Pitt on back to back nights, they are 5-0 vs the Metro, 6-2-1 vs Atlantic, 8-3-1 vs Pacific, 5-0-2 vs Central. That tells me that they are in all their games, they have a deep lineup with multiple weapons, have played some strong competition, and have completed most of their road games against the west, so they will be staying in the East and Central time zone for the rest of the season. They already have completed both their California trip (1-1-1) and Western Canada trip (3-0), and I think the furthest west they will go is Winnipeg tomorrow. Plus they already have done their 5 games in 7 days stretch (2-1-2), and besides the Florida swing their longest road trip is 5 games, but that is broken up by All-Star Weekend.



The Avs had the best record in the West Patrick Roy's 1st year. Stat geeks pointed out that they played above their heads. Mostly the same core this year. And they suck.

When the Pens started terrible last year the stat geeks pointed out their low shooting percentages, but folks wanted to laugh them off and write "Is Crosby Done?" articles. Stat geeks were right.

And again...the Jackets are playing good. They have good young d.

But their underlying stats suggest they are a bubble playoff team...not the best team in the NHL.

Enjoy the run...just be realistic.

And yeah, I get the humour of a Leaf fan saying that.

On another subject...the Toronto media has moved on from i"Is Laine better than Matthews?" (God no), to "Should Matthews be named captain right now?"...again fuck no.

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Thom
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posted on 1-4-2017 at 04:29 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
The Devils, for the last handful of games, have actually played Devils hockey. Too bad almost everyone in the conference has games in hand on them and they're tied for 12th. Well, maybe they can continue like this and scratch their way back up to a playoff spot.





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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 1-6-2017 at 04:14 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Wouldn't the Devils be better off getting a high draft pick?

Also...Burakovsky saying "It�s going be a really good and fun moment for us to end" Columbus's streak." BEFORE the game and then scoring the 4th goal? The NHL needs more of that.

Also...Canada vs USA has been crazy. World Juniors are kinda awesome.

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posted on 1-6-2017 at 05:24 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Shame the Blue Jackets fell short at 16, I was rooting for them to beat the Flyers record... still, and incredible accomplishment for a well built, and well managed team. They would appear to have plenty of cap room to keep the team together, and even add a player if need be... bonus, being a smaller market team any additions they might make would probably be sensible.

Way, way too soon to be talking about Matthews as captain material... let the kid get a year or two under his belt before you go hanging that weight around his neck... if it wasn't for the fact that both Van Remsdyk (not sure why he keeps getting rumoured to be shipped out) and Bosak might be gone within a year or so I'd consider one or the other for the C in the short run if you HAD to name a captain... otherwise I'd stick with the three "A's" for the next while until the locker room decides it needs a captain.... oh well, that's life in Leafland where the worst thing about Toronto are us fans.

Congrats to the US juniors... both teams played well, and the future battles on the ice between the two countries looks like they'll be great for years to come.

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Thom
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posted on 1-6-2017 at 03:40 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bigfatgoalie
Wouldn't the Devils be better off getting a high draft pick?


Yeah, probably. It's just nice seeing that maybe(?) they've realized they don't have the horses to play offensive hockey. Getting their heads out of their asses + quality draft pick = potential future success.

quote:

Also...Canada vs USA has been crazy. World Juniors are kinda awesome.


Yes, they are. Saw the Denmark-Switzerland game last weekend. Switzerland coming back, getting hosed on a no-goal call (where the puck was clearly across the line by 3-4 inches), and then winning in the shootout? More, please.





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OOMike
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posted on 1-7-2017 at 04:31 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Flash
Shame the Blue Jackets fell short at 16, I was rooting for them to beat the Flyers record... still, and incredible accomplishment for a well built, and well managed team. They would appear to have plenty of cap room to keep the team together, and even add a player if need be... bonus, being a smaller market team any additions they might make would probably be sensible.




Two words I am dreading.... Expansion Draft. Too many of those young players are going to be left exposed. We are going to lose at least a goalie plus one or two skaters.

If we can get Clarkson's salary off our cap, we would be in a much better position.





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Prejudices are rarely overcome by argument; not being founded in reason they cannot be destroyed by logic � Tryon Edwards

Never let the facts interfere with a good rant.

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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 1-7-2017 at 06:13 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by OOMike
quote:
Originally posted by Flash
Shame the Blue Jackets fell short at 16, I was rooting for them to beat the Flyers record... still, and incredible accomplishment for a well built, and well managed team. They would appear to have plenty of cap room to keep the team together, and even add a player if need be... bonus, being a smaller market team any additions they might make would probably be sensible.




Two words I am dreading.... Expansion Draft. Too many of those young players are going to be left exposed. We are going to lose at least a goalie plus one or two skaters.

If we can get Clarkson's salary off our cap, we would be in a much better position.


Each team can lose ONE player. Players with 2 years or less are ineligible. Teams can protect a lot. You'll be fine.

Getting Clarkson's salary off of the cap does lead to better things. But keep in mind Columbus did the trade because they are a budget team, not a cap team. Thrifty owners are a bigger issue to worry about. And getting back to expansion...the Vegas Thiefs (the Knights play in London and are defending Memorial Cup champs) have to take a lot of salary. It's why guys like Lupul and Clarckson may end up there.

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OOMike
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posted on 1-7-2017 at 09:15 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
That's the first I heard that each team can only lose one player. That makes me feel better.

I think there is a question if Clarkson has to be protected because of his limited no trade clause.





2017 where Nazis are defended and being against Fascism is a bad thing.

Prejudices are rarely overcome by argument; not being founded in reason they cannot be destroyed by logic � Tryon Edwards

Never let the facts interfere with a good rant.

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Flash
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posted on 1-8-2017 at 10:31 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I know anyone with a no movement clause has to be protected per some NHL edict not too long ago... a quick check on capgeek shows that Clarkson has a modified no movement clause/no trade clause... but it's pretty expansive in that he has to submit a list of 14 teams... so maybe they have to protect him, but can ask him to waive it.

Clarkson's contract also get's a bit less attractive right now as this year and next he get's $7 million cash (but only counts for a $5.250 cap hit)... after that he drops to $4.75 and then down to $3.25... while that $5.25 cap hit when you are paying less than that in the last two years is attractive to a team trying to get to the cap floor, odds are Columbus would have to give up something to dump Clarkson's contract... which maybe offers an opportunity in a round about way... like Columbus convinces Clarkson to go to Vegas, but they then trade a decent prospect to Vegas in exchange for taking Clarkson.

Honestly I'm just completely baffled that Toronto managed to get anyone, especially a cap team like Columbus to take Clarkson's contract without eating some of the contract... the only rationale I heard was that Columbus couldn't afford to pay Horton to stay at home (not clear when insurance would kick in) even though he wouldn't count against their cap due to the long term injury status... so if you are going to pay $5-ish million a year, it might as well be for a player that will play for you... Toronto meanwhile would seem to get the cap space of Horton sitting at home, and can more than afford to pay him to not play hockey (See St�phane Robidas too).

One team I read that might be a bit pooched by the expansion draft is Minnesota as they have a number of spots that are tied up with players with a no-movement clause, which means with the available spots they have left they will have to expose a good young player.

Kind of curious what kind of effect the expansion draft will have on this years trade deadline, or whatever window of time teams have to submit their protected player list... like teams sending good players off for below value just so they won't lose them for nothing

ETA: Looks like they can ask a player with a NMC to waive it, and if they consent they can expose them... all you'd want to know about Vegas and the draft: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

[Edited on 1-8-2017 by Flash]

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Flash
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posted on 1-19-2017 at 10:15 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I know the Av's are in the tank this year, but still a bit surprising to here that both Duchene and Landeskog are apparently on the market... I mean both have reasonable cap hits and a few years left on their deals, and both are still pretty young guys... I could see Duchene going for some defensive help if the Av's score Patrick in the draft as they already have MacKinnon up the centre along with Grigerenko, Sodenberg, and Colborne, but Landeskog is locked up at about $5.5 for like 5 more years, is your captain, and when the team plays well is a decent point producer.

There will definitely be a market for both, and the return for either is apt to be pretty good... probably more of an off season type deal, and after the dust clears from the expansion draft and more teams know what they have for sure.

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bigfatgoalie
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posted on 2-15-2017 at 04:23 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
So can anybody explain how this play resulted in a penalty shot?




[Edited on 2-15-2017 by bigfatgoalie]

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Thom
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posted on 2-15-2017 at 05:23 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Because, "Fuck the Leafs," I guess?

I don't even think there was a penalty, there. Hunwick got the stick up, but didn't actually hook him.





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posted on 3-1-2017 at 01:12 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Another year, and with 20 hours give or take left to go it would appear that in the modern cap ruled, 3 point games where a lot can still change after March the trade deadline is going to come and go without a the fanfare that ones ruled trade deadline day... The expansion draft might also be putting a bit of a crimp in this years deadline as well, as teams are probably hoping to know exactly what they have and will be protecting before losing players for nothing... oddly enough, while LV can't acquire an active roster player, they could be in play for draft picks today per a league ruling provided certain financial payments were made in time.

*Capitals made the big move picking up Shattenkirk for what amounted to a first round pick in a weak draft year... some prospects went back and forth, but no one too exciting. There are some various conditions which might net St. Louis a 2nd round pick out of the deal as well, but they are contingent upon the Caps either re-signing him, or making the Eastern conference finals. Blues keep about 39% of his salary to seasons end when he's a UFA.

*Rangers get Smith from Detroit for a 2nd and 3rd round pick... he's another UFA at seasons end.

*Ottawa picks up Burrows from the Canuck... I like this one; Burrows isn't the player that scored 20-something goals several plus years back, but he can still bring the sand paper, and with MacArthur out for the year he can help give them some left wing depth.

*King's get Bishop from TB... mostly a salary dump for TB, but gives the King's a capable back up.

*Toronto get's Boyle from TB... 2nd round pick and some other stuff... Boyle will definitely help in the face off circle and give some stability to the fourth line, plus he's got a lot of playoff experience having gone to the finals twice... Toronto has a good stock of young players, and I do believe they still have SJ's 2nd rounder left over from either the Polak or Reimer trades a year or two back, so while a 2nd round pick for a 4th liner seems high, Boyle's intangibles and Toronto's draft and organizational depth should put this one in the win column for Toronto. Toronto actually chased Boyle before he signed with TB a few years ago, so this one might turn out to be more than a few month rental.

I was actually at the Leafs and Habs on Saturday... I think Boyle helps them now, but I was pretty impressed with Gauthier's hustle and positioning in the game, so unless Gauthier can shift to the wing, Toronto is looking pretty deep up the middle now with Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Bozak, Kadri, and Boyle either playing up the middle full time, or eventually going to move there.

*Montr�al and the Islanders are both rumoured players for either Landeskog or Duchesne, but with how much the Avalanche are asking for either player it is expected that this is apt to be an off season move as any trade is apt to be a bit of a roster changing move.

*Fleury remains in play, but with fading skills, and close to $6 million for each of the next two years on his deal the list of suitors is short... throw in the fact that the Penguins would need to replace him with another veteran back up things might wait until the off season when he might be attractive to Vegas.

[Edited on 3-1-2017 by Flash]

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OOMike
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posted on 3-1-2017 at 05:25 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Last five weeks of the season coming up, and is whomever ends up in fourth place in the Metro the favorite to come out of the East?

Jackets, Pens, Rangers are all within a few points of each other, two of them will play each other in the first round, then Caps in the second. The team in fourth moves over to the Atlantic where they will play Montreal and another team that will probably have at least 10 fewer points at the end of the season.

Which team tanks for Wild Card?





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